Validation of a prognostic score for early mortality in severe head injury cases.

OBJECT: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) represents a large health and economic burden. Because of the inability of previous randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on TBI to demonstrate the expected benefit of reducing unfavorable outcomes, the IMPACT (International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI) and CRASH (Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury) studies provided new methods for performing prognostic studies of TBI. This study aimed to develop and externally validate a prognostic model for early death (within 48 hours). The secondary aim was to identify patients who were more likely to succumb to an early death to limit their inclusion in RCTs and to improve the efficiency of RCTs. METHODS: The derivation cohort was recruited at 1 center, Hospital 12 de Octubre, Madrid (1990-2003, 925 patients). The validation cohort was recruited in 2004-2006 from 7 study centers (374 patients). The eligible patients had suffered closed severe TBIs. The study outcome was early death (within 48 hours post-TBI). The predictors were selected using logistic regression modeling with bootstrapping techniques, and a penalized reduction was used. A risk score was developed based on the regression coefficients of the variables included in the final model. RESULTS: In the validation set, the final model showed a predictive ability of 50% (Nagelkerke R(2)), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 89% and an acceptable calibration (goodness-of-fit test, p = 0.32). The final model included 7 variables, and it was used to develop a risk score with a range from 0 to 20 points. Age provided 0, 1, 2, or 3 points depending on the age group; motor score provided 0 points, 2 (untestable), or 3 (no response); pupillary reactivity, 0, 2 (1 pupil reacted), or 6 (no pupil reacted); shock, 0 (no) or 2 (yes); subarachnoid hemorrhage, 0 or 1 (severe deposit); cisternal status, 0 or 3 (compressed/absent); and epidural hematoma, 0 (yes) or 2 (no). Based on the risk of early death estimated with the model, 4 risk of early death groups were established: low risk, sum score 0-3 (< 1% predicted mortality); moderate risk, sum score 4-8 (predicted mortality between 1% and 10%); high risk, sum score 9-12 (probability of early death between 10% and 50%); and very high risk, sum score 13-20 (early mortality probability > 50%). This score could be used for selecting patients for clinical studies. For example, if patients with very high risk scores were excluded from our study sample, the patients included (eligibility score < 13) would represent 80% of the original sample and only 23% of the patients who died early. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of Glasgow Coma Scale score, CT scanning results, and secondary insult data into a prognostic score improved the prediction of early death and the classification of TBI patients.

Intracranial pressure monitoring with the Neurodur-P epidural sensor: a prospective study in patients with adult hydrocephalus or idiopathic intracranial hypertension.

OBJECT: Continuous intracranial pressure (ICP) monitoring using an epidural sensor is a common technique used in selected neurosurgical patients. The aim of this study was to assess the safety and accuracy of the Neurodur-P epidural sensor in the clinical setting. METHODS: The zero drift, as well as the medical and technical complications, of using the Neurodur-P sensor placed in the epidural space was evaluated in 106 patients with hydrocephalus of varying causes or with suspected intracranial hypertension. RESULTS: The median duration of ICP monitoring was 8 days (interquartile range [IQR] 6-12 days). In 78 (73.6%) of the 106 patients the pressure reading was recorded at sensor removal. No zero drift was observed in 28 sensors. The median drift was 0 mm Hg with an IQR of -1 to 1 mm Hg. No significant differences were found between patients monitored for < or = 5 days and those monitored for > 5 days (t = 535, p = 0.100). No correlation was found between zero drift and monitoring time (r = 0.153, p = 0.181). Of the 83 patients with a follow-up computed tomography scan, 3 showed a < 1 ml collection of blood at the catheter tip. No clinical infections could be attributed to the devices. Only 1 sensor malfunctioned. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous ICP monitoring using the Neurodur-P sensor is safe, reliable, and easy to perform. At present, using this device is the authors' standard method for the long-term monitoring of patients with alterations in complex cerebrospinal fluid dynamics or with implanted shunts.

Posture-induced changes in intracranial pressure: a comparative study in patients with and without a cerebrospinal fluid block at the craniovertebral junction.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine posture-induced changes in intracranial pressure (ICP) when patients with hydrocephalus or idiopathic intracranial hypertension remained supine for 1 hour and then sat up and remained sitting for 3 hours. METHODS: Continuous ICP was monitored using a fiberoptic extradural sensor in: 1) 259 patients with hydrocephalus or idiopathic intracranial hypertension with free cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) flow through the craniovertebral junction and Sylvian aqueduct, 2) 20 patients with hydrocephalus secondary to aqueductal stenosis with free CSF flow through the craniovertebral junction, and 3) 97 patients with hydrocephalus associated with Chiari malformation. The maximum ICP difference (DeltaICP) was calculated as the difference between mean ICP in the supine position and minimum ICP value after changing body position. The mean ICP difference (DeltaICPmean) was calculated as the difference between the mean ICP in the supine position and the mean ICP while the patient was in a sitting position. RESULTS: In the complete sample, the median of DeltaICP was 13 mm Hg (interquartile range 10-17). The median of DeltaICPmean was 8 mm Hg (interquartile range 5-11). Both DeltaICP and DeltaICPmean were significantly greater in patients without obstruction in the craniospinal junction than in those with Chiari malformation (P = 0.005 and P = 0.014, respectively). No differences were found in DeltaICP or DeltaICPmean between patients with Sylvian aqueduct stenosis and those without (P = 0.777 and P = 0.346, respectively). CONCLUSION: ICP reduction after a change in body position is significantly greater in patients with free CSF flow through the craniospinal junction than in those with Chiari malformation, indicating the difficulty or impossibility of CSF displacement into the spinal canal in the latter.